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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.