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Just 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in after that and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible in which yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent would have essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. However the winner added half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump previously went for Zohran now. However it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I figured it could exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still around 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I believe there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. However overall, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he did?

Exist areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. So I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key figures from progressives come from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – candidates will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that each urban center in America can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities exist.