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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|